China's zero tariffs spark 25% jump in SA exports while Hormuz crisis hammers fertiliser

Two forces are reshaping Africa's trade outlook this week: China's zero-tariff regime is delivering measurable gains for South African exporters, while the Strait of Hormuz crisis sends fertiliser prices soaring and casts a shadow over next year's food security. Meanwhile, Somalia's entry into AfCFTA brings the continental pact to 50 ratifications, and foreign capital continues its selective hunt for African assets—from Egyptian pharmaceuticals to Mozambican flour mills.

This Week's Big Stories

• China's zero tariffs lift SA exports 25% as customs declarations triple South Africa's exports to China hit $5.3 billion between May and August 2026—up 25% year-on-year—following the 1 May operationalisation of China's zero-tariff treatment for 53 African countries, according to the South African Revenue Service. Customs declarations rose 199% year-on-year, with 25,975 certificates of origin issued between June and August. High value-added goods—machinery, electronics, chemicals, automobiles—are also growing, signalling a structural shift beyond raw commodities. (China Daily)
• US-Israel war on Iran drives fertiliser crisis, threatens Africa's 2027 harvests Fertiliser prices have risen "dramatically" due to the US-Israel war on Iran and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, prompting many African countries to reduce fertiliser use—a decision that will affect crops and food availability next year, according to Luz Maria de la Mora, director at UNCTAD. Uganda's fuel prices have more than doubled, Zimbabwe's 70%-agrarian economy faces mounting pressure, and the Ugandan shilling has lost 10% against the dollar. The crisis exposes who has subsistence cushions and who does not. (Al Jazeera)
• Somalia becomes 50th AfCFTA ratifier, unlocking access to 1.4bn consumers Somalia deposited its AfCFTA ratification instrument on 4 September 2026 and was confirmed as the 50th State Party this week, granting Somali businesses preferential access to a continental market of over 1.4 billion consumers, according to AfCFTA Secretary-General Wamkele Mene. Somalia joined the East African Community in late 2024 and received debt forgiveness from the World Bank and other lenders. Mogadishu's next steps: aligning tariff schedules, developing trade instruments and preparing SMEs for implementation. (TradingView)

Deals & Capital: Africa and the World

• DPI Venture Capital - Africa/Middle East fintech: DPI's Nclude Fund closes north of $112m for fintech across Africa and MENA The Nclude Fund, advised by DPI Venture Capital (the VC arm of London-based Development Partners International), closed at over $112 million and backs 15 fintech and fintech-enabled businesses from seed through Series C with cheques of $500,000 to $10 million. Watch whether the fund can turn financial inclusion thesis into exits that prove African fintech can scale regionally, not just locally. (Africa Private Equity News)
• RMBV - Egypt (ATCO Pharma): RMBV takes stake in Egyptian pharma group ATCO via North Africa Fund III RMBV signed definitive agreements to invest in ATCO Pharma for Pharmaceutical Industries through its North Africa Fund III, pending Egyptian Competition Authority approval. Founded 1986, ATCO has 150+ products (human and veterinary), exports to 10+ countries including Saudi Arabia and Nepal, and 160 molecules under development. This gives RMBV its first foothold in Egypt's veterinary pharmaceuticals—a play on the region's protein supply chain. (Africa Private Equity News)
• AfDB - UKEF (UK Export Finance): AfDB and UKEF sign first framework MoU to co-finance African infrastructure The African Development Bank Group and UK Export Finance signed a Memorandum of Understanding on 26 October in Conakry, Guinea, creating a framework to co-finance government and private-sector projects across energy, transport, water, health, digital infrastructure, critical minerals, agriculture and trade finance. No capital commitment disclosed. Watch whether this delivers actual deal flow or remains a handshake exercise. (Devdiscourse)
• Ground Up Investing (Corus) - Africa/Latin America agri SMEs: Corus-backed Ground Up Investing hits $6m first close on $20m agri Fund 2 Ground Up Investing, the impact arm of US-based Corus International, reached a $6 million first close for its $20 million Fund 2, which provides two-year working capital loans to agricultural SMEs in Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Colombia, Peru and Ecuador. The fund targets $200 million in new farmer income—$10 for every $1 invested—and plans to improve land management on 20,000+ acres. Fund 1 deployed $5 million across 15 businesses from 2017. (Africa Private Equity News)
• Helios Investment Partners - Mozambique (Merec): Helios buys 49% of Mozambique's largest flour miller Merec from Abu Dhabi's Invictus London- and Lagos-based Helios Investment Partners is acquiring a 49% stake in Merec, Mozambique's largest flour miller, from Abu Dhabi-listed Invictus Investment, which will remain majority shareholder. Deal value undisclosed; completion expected before end-2026 pending regulatory approvals. Founded 1998, Merec operates mills, silos and production facilities in Maputo, Beira and Nacala and owns a grain terminal at Maputo Port. Helios and Invictus plan to build a regional Southern African food platform. (Business Insider Africa)

The Price Board

Prices as at 27 Oct 2026, 04:58 UK time: latest exchange futures and FX quotes via Yahoo Finance. Indicative only, not investment advice.

Grains are in retreat: wheat fell 4.5% on the week to 614.50 USc/bu (down 10.8% on the month) and maize dropped 1.7% to 454.00 USc/bu (down 13.2% monthly). For African importers facing fertiliser cost shocks and currency weakness, cheaper global grain should offer relief—but only if logistics hold and if reduced fertiliser use this season does not kneecap domestic production in 2027. The divergence between falling international prices and rising domestic input costs is a trap: governments and millers may pocket the spread rather than pass savings to consumers.

Brent crude edged up 0.8% to $109.69/bbl (up 4.2% on the month), reflecting persistent risk premium around the Strait of Hormuz. For fuel-import-dependent African economies, every incremental dollar per barrel flows straight into transport costs, power generation and—crucially—fertiliser distribution. Gold slipped 2.8% to $4,026.20/oz, surrendering some of its war-premium gains, while copper held flat at $6.5780/lb. Cocoa eased 3.2% to $5,503.00/t and arabica coffee fell 5.1% to 299.50 USc/lb, offering marginal breathing room for processors but doing nothing for farmers locked into forward contracts struck at lower prices months ago.

Currency moves tell the real story: the Egyptian pound weakened 4.3% on the week (up 8.5% on the month) to 56.22 per dollar, the South African rand lost 1.3% to 16.63, the Kenyan shilling slipped 0.8% to 129.79 and the naira softened 1.0% to 1,346.33. Uganda's reported 10% currency loss (source does not specify timeframe) fits the pattern. African central banks are caught between defending currencies and preserving reserves while import bills—fuel, fertiliser, wheat—climb in dollar terms. The China zero-tariff story matters precisely because it offers hard-currency export earnings at a moment when every economy on the continent is watching its fx reserves.

The Question of the Week

If China's zero-tariff regime can lift South African exports 25% in four months, why are 49 other African beneficiaries not flooding Beijing with apples, machinery and chemicals—and who is actually capturing the margin between duty savings and final consumer prices in Shanghai? Is this a trade breakthrough or a South African one-off?